Rarely has such a robust labor market been so thoroughly scoured for signs of impending doom.
Does this mean you should lower your salary expectations the next time you are up for a promotion or a new job? Or settle for a job with more security as a recession looms?
Not necessarily. Now is still a good time to vie for a new opportunity or more money.
The demand for talent is strong and many employers are contending with significant staffing challenges. Economists predicting a downturn in the coming year don’t expect unemployment to rise significantly. Workers have the upper hand, according to these five data points from June.
About 10% of job ads mention remote work
Nearly half of 1,700 workers polled in June by the Society for Human Resource Management said they would seek a remote role for their next job.
For workers looking to work remotely, 9.1%, of job postings on Indeed.com advertised remote work in June, the latest month available, compared with under 3% in 2019.
The ability to work from home still varies by occupation. Under 40% of posts for software-developer jobs on Indeed.com in May allowed remote work at least part of the time, making it the most flexible position of any tracked on the platform. Other roles with high levels of work-from-home options include IT, marketing, mathematics and user-experience design.
New job-posting growth has plateaued
Growth in the number of jobs advertised on platforms such as Indeed.com and LinkedIn is starting to drift down. But this is a plateau, not a plunge, according to
an economist at Indeed. Job postings are 53.8% higher than they were in February 2020, during a strong labor market before the pandemic took hold.
Workers are quitting their jobs to change industries
Quits rate by industry sector
Fewer workers are handing in resignations than in November 2021, when the percentage of people quitting jobs hit a record high. But employees continue to job-hop with vigor: 4.3 million workers quit their jobs in May.
SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS
How confident are you that you could switch jobs? Join the conversation below.
The majority of workers who left their jobs in the past two years took roles in other industries, according to a survey of more than 13,000 workers conducted between February and April by consulting firm McKinsey & Co.
For employers in industries such as finance and insurance, where more than half of those who quit have left the sector, those moves have led to worker shortages that could benefit job seekers.
Job cuts are low but show signs of rising
Job cuts remain relatively low, but concerns are growing. More than three-quarters of U.S. workers fear losing their jobs if there is a recession, according to a survey of more than 1,000 employees conducted in June by staffing firm Insight Global. The layoff rate as measured by federal data was 0.9% in May.
Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc., which tracks monthly layoffs, found that job cuts rose between May and June.
Cuts have been concentrated in industries such as technology, automotive and consumer products—those affected most by rising interest rates, supply-chain issues and a slowdown in pandemic-driven demand for goods.
The number of open jobs exceeds the unemployed
There are currently 11.3 million open jobs in the U.S., according to federal data—almost two open jobs for every person who is unemployed and looking for work. Even as some sectors pull back on hiring, industries like leisure and hospitality are struggling to staff up.
Some employers are looking well beyond their typical hiring pools to find the talent they need.
The number of involuntary part-time workers—those who want full-time work but can’t find it or have had their hours cut—declined by more than 700,000 in June to 3.6 million, well below its February 2020 level of 4.4 million.
Write to Kathryn Dill at [email protected]
Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8